The hurricane could hit the coast of Texas or Louisiana early next week

(KXAN) – Although no storm has yet formed, we are monitoring a disturbance in the Caribbean that could eventually become Hurricane Ida and threaten the Texas coast.

The National Hurricane Center continues to increase the chances of this system intensifying into a tropical depression over the next five days, currently at 80%.

GOES-16 satellite image of the tropical disturbance south of Hispaniola

Although predicting the path and intensity of a tropical storm or hurricane that has not even formed is still very difficult, we see constant signs in our computer models that this disturbance may intensify in tropical storm or hurricane this head of the week as it passes through the western Gulf of Mexico.

It looks like this tropical system will be able to intensify rapidly within reach of the land, a situation that may cause coastal residents to be surprised by a higher intensity than they might have expected a day or two earlier. The most recent intensity predictions of a handful of our best following models predict now stronger storm.

While some of the latest computer model predictions have shifted their planned runway from Texas to Louisiana, the storm has yet to develop a definite center, so predicting its runway is still a bit of a riddle. As the storm gets better organized, we’ll get a clearer picture of where it’s headed, and these prediction tracks may still oscillate westward toward Texas.

Different computer models forecast clues to this potential tropical system through Monday / Tuesday, showing a shift to the east in its latest runs.

Remember, it is very difficult to predict the track and intensity of a tropical system when the system has not yet formed. Stay tuned to KXAN and KXAN.com for updates as this situation evolves.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm on Thursday, gathering valuable data to feed our prediction models.

Because the storm has not yet developed a closed traffic center, forecasting maximum wind speeds or rainfall amounts in our area is extremely difficult and any amount our teams currently suggest will change as we process new ones. data.

If the system affects the Texas coast and is a stronger tropical system, central Texas may see rainfall causing flooding and even gusty winds. If the system is weaker or moving away from our area, the impacts could be minimal.

Stay tuned to KXAN, KXAN.com and our free KXAN weather app for forecast updates as we gather new information over the next few days. Interests on the Texas coast should be aware of hurricanes.